More Energy! More Tinkering! More Dawdling

Oil at $136 a barrel ? Say what?

Even though oil is through the roof with no end in sight, why is it that many of the oil majors, have seen stock prices decline for the year so far? Even the drillers have marginaly higher stock values year to date. The exploration companies are quietly reaping the rewards. Exploration companies like Southwest Energy and Noble are making it in gas and oil exploration. China has just whet its ravenous appetite for energy. It's importing all the coal it can get- Makes for happy Aussies, and Petro China is maxed out in exploration/production so China is looking wherever it can for the black gold. Commodities like foodstuffs, fertilizers and metals are also in much demand from emerging markets like Brazil and Peru as well as China.

Chinese solar energy companies are promising growth of 30 to 75% a year for the next five years at least. These folks have been hard at work researching and improving their solar capabilities while we bemoan the fact that our gas prices are almost 2/3 what Europeans pay! There are a few small solar energy companies in the US and companies like Dupont are starting to supply some solar related material, but I don't see our leadership rallying around the flag for alternatives to our energy problems- No new policies- Unless you count begging the oil sheiks to increase production. This isn't the answer, folks. We are an oil based economy that's running out of oil- Except to import it. Our inflation will be a function of how much more money the government can print in order to pay the bill. Maybe we'll have another round of tax rebates- Yeah! That's the ticket! Our kids can pay the bill.

Presidential election year notwithstanding the market here may gyrate up as history promises it will in election years but the economy will have much pain for some time. There is just too much garbage debt to absorb. The clowns in the financial sector that brought this mess about should be in jail but I'll bet they probably got increases in their bonuses!

There is a strong move afoot led by Iran and Venezuela to cut loose from the US Dollar as the oil currency of choice. The US is pleading with the Saudis to keep the dollar as the official payment choice. Even the Saudis will run out of US stuff they can buy pretty soon. They have all the military toys they can spend US dollars on and are busy buying land and businesses in the Western hemisphere. The Fairmont Hotel empire was a recent Saudi purchase and condos in Colorado are hot. Right now the oil boys are our good buddies but when push comes to shove as it did in 1973-74 we could have better luck looking for oil in McDonalds restaurants rather than the Middle East.

Possibly with enough pain we as a nation and as (sometimes) world leaders would start a significant movement in the direction of alternative energy. Maybe $5 bucks for gas will be the tilting point. We had a move towards renewable energy under Carter but the Reagan administration let it die on the vine. After that the sense of immediate urgency dissipated.

Well, the sense of urgency is back. Fuel cells, solar energy, wind farms and geothermal projects may make even more sense now and may be approaching more feasible comparative cost levels. As a debtor nation that had the party with the inheritance, we must start the ball rolling, not just find a temporary relief that will put us back into complacency once more. Maybe the leadership will be there next year- I, for one hope so.