Gen X families with kids, bills, mortgages and limited real job security are hunkering down- At least they should be. They worry about whether they can pay the mortgage or the rent; have the money to provide life insurance to protect their family's future in the event they die; whether the two wheezing autos will make it through the coming Winter; whether that cough they've developed will eventually become a disability issue, or whether Jenny will need those braces this year after all and how much the oil bils will be this Winter.
Like many, they have tried to save and didn't go for the new Abominator sports ute, the Amazaphone that does everything but the laundry, nor the 50" LED boob tube as so many others did. They were watching their budgets, not going out much, working in their garden to reduce costs and hoping the savings they were able to put away would amount to something.
Many are teachers, state workers, small business owners and municipal employees all fearing that their jobs or businesses could disappear next week. They represent typical American families.
What could, should they have done differently over the last 10, 15, 25 years?
Many would say that investing in the capital markets would have produced significant gain, that the growth in assets would result in a comfortable retirement. Others would have said buy a home and watch it appreciate in value. Some said invest in a small business and keep it growing. Some even bought life insurance and watched the guaranteed 4.5% interest rates grow their cash values. An interesting fact- The S&P Index is at almost the same level it was at 10 years ago- The S&P represents about 75% of the value of invest-able equities in the country.
We can probably assume that the concerned families- The ones that worried about their and their families' future probably tried to do all the right stuff. Unfortunately our government is forever in a recurring dream kind of problem and needed to do what they could to minimize recessions, keep everyone working and engage in a few wars as well. They had to do this for years and years and as a resulting necessity the obligations that government has to its people and the rest of the world are watered down through the US financial printing press. When they needed a few bucks they tossed the then self-sustaining Social Security fund into the general treasury bucket.
As to the saver, a retiring person or someone else on a fixed income, their savings, investments, pension expectations and Social Security were decimated by an ever increasing dilution of the Greenback. While the printing presses roll on the US dollar is shrinking to less comparative value every day with no sign of improvement on the horizon.
Every administration for the last 40 years watched as we imported more oil every year and did nothing to develop an energy policy. Congress was and still is interested only in getting reelected so an energy policy wasn't in their best interests.
So, what do we suggest to our Gen X families?
Since growth in the US will be minimal at best for the foreseeable future while inflation will necessarily increase, foreign markets probably offer the best opportunities. Emerging markets like the "BRIC" countries- Brazil, Russia, India and China as well as somewhat smaller emerging countries like Indonesia, Singapore, Chile and New Zealand contain many solid opportunities without total dependence on exports for their GDP. These countries see continuing growth.
Developed countries like Canada, Norway, Australia and Mexico all have assets that should be in demand even though the countries importing these products will drop somewhat.
Currencies like the Swiss Franc and Norwegian Krone are as solid as they can be due to their lack of encumbering debt and higher interest rates. Canadian bonds and bank interest rates are also attractive.
Many commentators suggested long tern investment in stock funds. They are correct with some caveats going forward. A fund or group of funds that contains some debt- Emerging Market debt is the best opportunity as are Emerging Market stocks. Buying Canadian dollars or buying Canadian issued bonds or certificates is not a bad plan either. The EURO mess is far from decided and there are most likely some bedbugs under the covers that discourages investment in EURO countries right now. The afore mentioned BRIC countries should be considered, though. Many ETFs and index funds exist for these.
What about gold and silver? Some people with long term savvy suggest that gold and silver will be a natural offset to the obviously looming inflation. Right now gold- Either in hard form or gold index (GLD) or silver index (SLV) is probably a good idea but be careful of volatility. Many experts see gold going to at least $2000- But not in a straight line.
Savings is the sticky issue. Should putting money in a savings account be encouraged? CDs? Money Market funds? US Treasuries? Unfortunately all of these equate to automatic confiscation of one's assets. The interest income doesn't come close to overcoming inflation, and US Treasuries will drop severely in value should interest rates move up even a little.
To those that qualify for mortgages or have some money available income real estate in the US may be attractive. Many folks are buying two and four unit buildings and plan to live in them. Just try to ascertain that they have reached their price low point in the housing markets downward spiral.
For those looking for an epiphany, sorry, no short answers here- Hunkering down is the rule of the day until the world gets itself back in order.
Good luck!
Thursday, August 25, 2011
Sunday, November 29, 2009
It's Raining Bailout Money! The Banks are saved!
I for one really wish that all of those telling the world that the recession is over and that good times are around the corner were correct, that times are getting better, the contrary unemployment level gobbledygook notwithstanding. Some of the big financial centers may have had a good Thanksgiving but I fear many of the regional banks that are still afloat are starting to take on water.
I don't believe that the critical issues have been really thought out, or maybe they have been and nobody dares to tell anyone else.
The first is oil- Or the lack thereof. 35 years ago we were an oil based economy with then US oil and gas production satisfying somewhere around 65% of our energy needs. Alaska was pumping oil into Valdez through the Trans Alaska pipeline and life was good. Microchips were being developed and the personal computer was in its nascent stage. Microsoft wasn't even a household name at that point. GM, Ford and Chrysler were the three world kings of automobiles and muscle cars were still in high demand in spite of the 1973 oil crisis. Japanese cars sounded like sewing machines and rusted out in a few years.
Jimmy Carter at that time was preaching to the choir when he said that we must find alternative energy sources and reduce oil consumption. He was the only US president to really wave that flag up to that point. Car makers response? Build SUVs- Can't make 'em fast enough.
Well, here we are 30 years later and we are no longer an oil based economy- Lack of oil tells the story. Us car makers are going belly-up since they never retooled to supply a frugal oil consuming line of vehicles like the car manufacturers did in Germany, France, Italy and the rest of Europe. We pony up and pay the Arab nations and the rest of the oil cartel for the 70% of oil we consume that we don't produce at home. Anybody see a pattern here? T. Boone Pickens is attempting to rally an alternative energy focus instead of oil as the go to energy source. His big push is for natural gas to replace gasoline as it has in a good part of the world and then to heavily promote wind power as a long term solution. Go T. Boone!
Good thing our buddies the Chinese are willing to shovel a continuing supply of US Treasuries into the reserve closet even though they hardly pay any interest. If they didn't buy our treasury bonds we couldn't pay our bills. The ridiculous levels of leveraging are just starting to hit with a slew of banks biting the bullet every month. Are the bailouts over? I fear not. What we have seen so far is just the tip of the iceberg. Several research organizations this past week informed us that one in four mortgages are under water. Twenty-five percent of all mortgaged properties aren't worth the paper held by their lenders! Gee I wonder what happens in the event some of those unemployed are trying to pay back those mortgages.
The health care industry is getting messier all the time. It is true that we are the victims of our own technology- Tests that were only prescribed in dire cases are now on every doctors prescription pad. How could they not be? The doc that doesn't prescribe a test and something goes sour will be reading their name in the lawsuit lists. CAT scan equipment 10 years ago was only approved for a very few health centers. It seems that every medical practice has their own CT offices now. People that were considered on the fringe 15 years ago that promoted health care rationing are once again being listened to.
All this expense and the health care outcomes for US citizens aren't even in the top 10 nations anymore. This is world leadership? Check the World Health website for some real eye opening stats. It's true that we don't have to be on a long waiting list to have a procedure performed and we can't be refused medical care but the 20 some percent without health coverage almost certainly need to declare bankruptcy should a serious medical condition arise. You might say, "Let them buy insurance!" Shades of Marie Antoinette. Maybe these folks might be some of the newly unemployed that have underwater mortgages. Hmmm.
Boggles the mind. Economists estimate that it could take 10 years to reduce unemployment to pre sub-prime mortgage days. I'm not sure what happens to all those water logged mortgages in that scenario. What about the reduction in property taxes as a result of property values being lower? Does this mean a possible reduction in public services like police, fire, EMS, education, roads, parks and of course health care? Naw- Couldn't happen. Right.
As I started out writing this blog I said that I applaud the efforts of the soothsayers predicting all will be well in a year or so but I truly fear that they are whistling in the dark. Our standard of living will face severe trials in the next dozen years or so.
I don't think many of us will like that. Then again, maybe I'm too much of a pessimist.
I don't believe that the critical issues have been really thought out, or maybe they have been and nobody dares to tell anyone else.
The first is oil- Or the lack thereof. 35 years ago we were an oil based economy with then US oil and gas production satisfying somewhere around 65% of our energy needs. Alaska was pumping oil into Valdez through the Trans Alaska pipeline and life was good. Microchips were being developed and the personal computer was in its nascent stage. Microsoft wasn't even a household name at that point. GM, Ford and Chrysler were the three world kings of automobiles and muscle cars were still in high demand in spite of the 1973 oil crisis. Japanese cars sounded like sewing machines and rusted out in a few years.
Jimmy Carter at that time was preaching to the choir when he said that we must find alternative energy sources and reduce oil consumption. He was the only US president to really wave that flag up to that point. Car makers response? Build SUVs- Can't make 'em fast enough.
Well, here we are 30 years later and we are no longer an oil based economy- Lack of oil tells the story. Us car makers are going belly-up since they never retooled to supply a frugal oil consuming line of vehicles like the car manufacturers did in Germany, France, Italy and the rest of Europe. We pony up and pay the Arab nations and the rest of the oil cartel for the 70% of oil we consume that we don't produce at home. Anybody see a pattern here? T. Boone Pickens is attempting to rally an alternative energy focus instead of oil as the go to energy source. His big push is for natural gas to replace gasoline as it has in a good part of the world and then to heavily promote wind power as a long term solution. Go T. Boone!
Good thing our buddies the Chinese are willing to shovel a continuing supply of US Treasuries into the reserve closet even though they hardly pay any interest. If they didn't buy our treasury bonds we couldn't pay our bills. The ridiculous levels of leveraging are just starting to hit with a slew of banks biting the bullet every month. Are the bailouts over? I fear not. What we have seen so far is just the tip of the iceberg. Several research organizations this past week informed us that one in four mortgages are under water. Twenty-five percent of all mortgaged properties aren't worth the paper held by their lenders! Gee I wonder what happens in the event some of those unemployed are trying to pay back those mortgages.
The health care industry is getting messier all the time. It is true that we are the victims of our own technology- Tests that were only prescribed in dire cases are now on every doctors prescription pad. How could they not be? The doc that doesn't prescribe a test and something goes sour will be reading their name in the lawsuit lists. CAT scan equipment 10 years ago was only approved for a very few health centers. It seems that every medical practice has their own CT offices now. People that were considered on the fringe 15 years ago that promoted health care rationing are once again being listened to.
All this expense and the health care outcomes for US citizens aren't even in the top 10 nations anymore. This is world leadership? Check the World Health website for some real eye opening stats. It's true that we don't have to be on a long waiting list to have a procedure performed and we can't be refused medical care but the 20 some percent without health coverage almost certainly need to declare bankruptcy should a serious medical condition arise. You might say, "Let them buy insurance!" Shades of Marie Antoinette. Maybe these folks might be some of the newly unemployed that have underwater mortgages. Hmmm.
Boggles the mind. Economists estimate that it could take 10 years to reduce unemployment to pre sub-prime mortgage days. I'm not sure what happens to all those water logged mortgages in that scenario. What about the reduction in property taxes as a result of property values being lower? Does this mean a possible reduction in public services like police, fire, EMS, education, roads, parks and of course health care? Naw- Couldn't happen. Right.
As I started out writing this blog I said that I applaud the efforts of the soothsayers predicting all will be well in a year or so but I truly fear that they are whistling in the dark. Our standard of living will face severe trials in the next dozen years or so.
I don't think many of us will like that. Then again, maybe I'm too much of a pessimist.
Friday, August 14, 2009
How Long is This Tunnel Anyway?
Everyone is looking for guidance as to what is happening to the economy and what the immediate future has in store for us. I believe that the tea leaves can be read without a lot of difficulty right now. It's really a function of how much money is available in the system compared to what demands for said money are extant. The one shot tax rebate last year caused a spike in buying (and a little credit card debt reduction) but it only lasted a month or two. The "clunker" program has gotten a few new cars off the lot but does nothing for the systemic problem- Too much leverage- Not enough capital-
The consumer everyone is waiting for to bring home the bacon is probably the wisest of all- Or maybe most fearful. Hunkering down probably isn't a bad idea right now. Savings rates have climbed significantly since the American public stopped drinking the big government Kool-Aid, you know, the part where Paulson said back in 2008 that we would undergo a slowdown but everything was OK. Right now government is worrying about how to pay for the corporate largess foisted on the American public- Let's see, we have to pay a lot of money for those fixed costs like Social Security, government payrolls, tax credits and pork barrel stuff. Hey- What if we just print more money and in doing so dilute the real costs of that stuff since we are paying in cheaper dollars. Who cares about inflation or the purchasing power of those on fixed incomes. When we get the bubble resuming people will forget all about the real costs. Keep the Now Generation happy and get re-elected. That's the mantra.
I don't know though, Can we print enough money so that we make up for the phony collateralized pools the finance gurus set up? After all, the asset base compared to what finance is available out there will be impossible to reconcile. Assets that aren't necessary any more will go unpurchased or sold at distress prices. Check out the prices of big screen TVs and other toys. Banks are, and should be afraid to lend money for home mortgages knowing in their heart of hearts that home values are already underwater before they take on a new mortgage. We are being told now that by the end of the year 50% of mortages in the country will be under water, that is, the mortgage will be higher than what the property could sell for.
The second home, the fun car, the Mediterranean cruise, the trip to see the kids are all on the block- The whole world economy save a few hardliners like China, Germany, Switzerland and Malaysia became a humongous Ponzi scheme that won't get fixed overnight. Some European nations had enough faith in the US finance schemes to buy collaterized debt paper to make up their reserves. Iceland is a good example. Sorry folks- You have to get in line just like the other investors who were sucked in.
How long until this mess is fixed? Some of the big finance outfits, you know, the ones that sold everyone on the Ponzi schemes to begin with are now fluffing up the equity markets and the end of the day's trading to make things look rosier, and stating that the worst is over- Investors get back in there and put your capital to work! This is getting to be a harder sell. Some of the small investor crowd is saying "I was already burned once and you want me to do what?"
The Feds are phasing down their debt purchase programs so in order to sell more treasuries the yields will have to increase. The government had hoped the investing public and the markets would have improved by now but they have indeed found a sticky wicket. If rates increase it could be bad news to the nascent recovery, but they can't continue to debase the currency forever. Some folks feel that the best way to deal with the situation is to let market economic rules do their stuff. However, the elephant in the room, you know, the big one with the best economy in the world holding $2 Trillion in US debt is looking a little worried here. Can you blame them?
So what do we do now? Obama must be thinking Franklin D. Roosevelt at this point like in WPA projects or some other kind of infrastructure fix. I really don't believe that there quick ways to unwind what took place over the last decade. The creating of asset bases on illusions can't be reversed overnight although many, through failure have ceased to operate. Are we done failing? As in banks, foreclosures, personal and corporate bankruptcies? Sorry, kids- No instant gratification this time. School of hard knocks here we come.
The trade deficit must eventually be recognized as the real barometer of this country's health and as long as we keep importing energy at the rate we do our standard of living's future is murky at best. I don't believe that the Chinese are willing to keep funding our deficits forever. Are the people of the country ready to do whatever is necessary to reduce our energy consumption? We'll see.
The consumer everyone is waiting for to bring home the bacon is probably the wisest of all- Or maybe most fearful. Hunkering down probably isn't a bad idea right now. Savings rates have climbed significantly since the American public stopped drinking the big government Kool-Aid, you know, the part where Paulson said back in 2008 that we would undergo a slowdown but everything was OK. Right now government is worrying about how to pay for the corporate largess foisted on the American public- Let's see, we have to pay a lot of money for those fixed costs like Social Security, government payrolls, tax credits and pork barrel stuff. Hey- What if we just print more money and in doing so dilute the real costs of that stuff since we are paying in cheaper dollars. Who cares about inflation or the purchasing power of those on fixed incomes. When we get the bubble resuming people will forget all about the real costs. Keep the Now Generation happy and get re-elected. That's the mantra.
I don't know though, Can we print enough money so that we make up for the phony collateralized pools the finance gurus set up? After all, the asset base compared to what finance is available out there will be impossible to reconcile. Assets that aren't necessary any more will go unpurchased or sold at distress prices. Check out the prices of big screen TVs and other toys. Banks are, and should be afraid to lend money for home mortgages knowing in their heart of hearts that home values are already underwater before they take on a new mortgage. We are being told now that by the end of the year 50% of mortages in the country will be under water, that is, the mortgage will be higher than what the property could sell for.
The second home, the fun car, the Mediterranean cruise, the trip to see the kids are all on the block- The whole world economy save a few hardliners like China, Germany, Switzerland and Malaysia became a humongous Ponzi scheme that won't get fixed overnight. Some European nations had enough faith in the US finance schemes to buy collaterized debt paper to make up their reserves. Iceland is a good example. Sorry folks- You have to get in line just like the other investors who were sucked in.
How long until this mess is fixed? Some of the big finance outfits, you know, the ones that sold everyone on the Ponzi schemes to begin with are now fluffing up the equity markets and the end of the day's trading to make things look rosier, and stating that the worst is over- Investors get back in there and put your capital to work! This is getting to be a harder sell. Some of the small investor crowd is saying "I was already burned once and you want me to do what?"
The Feds are phasing down their debt purchase programs so in order to sell more treasuries the yields will have to increase. The government had hoped the investing public and the markets would have improved by now but they have indeed found a sticky wicket. If rates increase it could be bad news to the nascent recovery, but they can't continue to debase the currency forever. Some folks feel that the best way to deal with the situation is to let market economic rules do their stuff. However, the elephant in the room, you know, the big one with the best economy in the world holding $2 Trillion in US debt is looking a little worried here. Can you blame them?
So what do we do now? Obama must be thinking Franklin D. Roosevelt at this point like in WPA projects or some other kind of infrastructure fix. I really don't believe that there quick ways to unwind what took place over the last decade. The creating of asset bases on illusions can't be reversed overnight although many, through failure have ceased to operate. Are we done failing? As in banks, foreclosures, personal and corporate bankruptcies? Sorry, kids- No instant gratification this time. School of hard knocks here we come.
The trade deficit must eventually be recognized as the real barometer of this country's health and as long as we keep importing energy at the rate we do our standard of living's future is murky at best. I don't believe that the Chinese are willing to keep funding our deficits forever. Are the people of the country ready to do whatever is necessary to reduce our energy consumption? We'll see.
Tuesday, February 10, 2009
Fixing What Ails Us
Here we sit several months since it was determined that the federal government needed to infuse the US economy with some corporate welfare into the banking system rather than tax cuts, business incentives, pork projects, work programs or more rebate checks. The pocket change handouts given to the public was nice but lasted only until the next credit card payment was due.
Now we have to go back to the basic Economics 101- Money is the core of an economy. Right now the "De-leveraging" has removed a huge hunk of money from the economy as a result of lost equity (both stock and housing) resulting in not enough to go around. The value of overall equity is down about two trillion bucks as we speak.
The federal government's only tool to fix what's gone bad is to add money to the system. This could occur in different ways, the most immediate effect of course is by force feeding lending institutions with $800 billion or so to jump start the increase in the "velocity of money," (velocity is that which actually drives the system)- More velocity- Better economy. Increasing the velocity of money could also be accomplished by creating jobs as in Roosevelt's WPA program in the 30s but that would take way too long to have any material effect- Took almost 7 years during the depression of the 30s- World War II finally got us out.
To put a brand of "socialism" on the distribution of money process is truly simplistic. The very existence of government is socialistic. Market dynamics cannot work without a centralized force to stoke the fire when needed. Obviously the value of currency will be affected negatively in the process but the alternative is totally unacceptable- We can see that aspect right now.
Unfortunately, doling out mega-bucks to fat cat bankers is nasty business. We saw first hand what happened to your tax dollars as the largess took place- The goobers gave themselves huge bonus payments and scheduled "retreats" to ultra high-end watering holes. The chief goober at Merril Lynch decided his office needed stuff like an $84,000 rug and a six figure furnishing arrangement. No doubt about it your tax money passed out without restriction WILL be squandered to a great extent. Trying to control the process is like it was 30 years ago in trying to establish price controls. You can control certain aspects like President Obama has done with limiting executive compensation to $500,000 for corporate recipients of TARP funds but the fat cats will easily find an end-around to that process.
The banks that have received money are bolstering their shaky loan portfolios rather than pushing it back into new lending. As long as this is the norm, TARP will have little or no effect. How do we force banks to lend? The bailout of General Motors needed to happen but the act was distasteful at best. The last thing the country needed was hundreds of thousands of GM workers and related industries and their employees folding their tents when demand for such products evaporated.
Depending on a totally botched lending system headed by clueless leadership to bring about recovery is not the answer. There are thousands of financial institutions in the country that did not offer sub-prime mortgages. They are now taking a hit because the loans that they did make are not being repaid since so many of their customers like small businesses have failed and too many workers are unemployed and are unable to repay loans.
So what's the solution? The immediate shot in the arm may be like castor oil but could be the best tonic. Infusing the public with a dose of cash could have the best overall benefit to the country. If one took a look at the $850,000,000,000 being dumped into a failed financial system and instead had distributed those funds to each household in the country that money would have been put to work immediately. Loans would be paid, expenditures made for autos, refrigerators and houses and investment- Values would increase. The American consumer puts over 60 percent of the US GDP on the ledger. The consumer is our leadership out of the mess the fat cats created.
This alternative makes a lot more sense than giving corporate welfare payments to those that just abuse the American public some more. Call it whatever you want- It's still corporate welfare.
Now we have to go back to the basic Economics 101- Money is the core of an economy. Right now the "De-leveraging" has removed a huge hunk of money from the economy as a result of lost equity (both stock and housing) resulting in not enough to go around. The value of overall equity is down about two trillion bucks as we speak.
The federal government's only tool to fix what's gone bad is to add money to the system. This could occur in different ways, the most immediate effect of course is by force feeding lending institutions with $800 billion or so to jump start the increase in the "velocity of money," (velocity is that which actually drives the system)- More velocity- Better economy. Increasing the velocity of money could also be accomplished by creating jobs as in Roosevelt's WPA program in the 30s but that would take way too long to have any material effect- Took almost 7 years during the depression of the 30s- World War II finally got us out.
To put a brand of "socialism" on the distribution of money process is truly simplistic. The very existence of government is socialistic. Market dynamics cannot work without a centralized force to stoke the fire when needed. Obviously the value of currency will be affected negatively in the process but the alternative is totally unacceptable- We can see that aspect right now.
Unfortunately, doling out mega-bucks to fat cat bankers is nasty business. We saw first hand what happened to your tax dollars as the largess took place- The goobers gave themselves huge bonus payments and scheduled "retreats" to ultra high-end watering holes. The chief goober at Merril Lynch decided his office needed stuff like an $84,000 rug and a six figure furnishing arrangement. No doubt about it your tax money passed out without restriction WILL be squandered to a great extent. Trying to control the process is like it was 30 years ago in trying to establish price controls. You can control certain aspects like President Obama has done with limiting executive compensation to $500,000 for corporate recipients of TARP funds but the fat cats will easily find an end-around to that process.
The banks that have received money are bolstering their shaky loan portfolios rather than pushing it back into new lending. As long as this is the norm, TARP will have little or no effect. How do we force banks to lend? The bailout of General Motors needed to happen but the act was distasteful at best. The last thing the country needed was hundreds of thousands of GM workers and related industries and their employees folding their tents when demand for such products evaporated.
Depending on a totally botched lending system headed by clueless leadership to bring about recovery is not the answer. There are thousands of financial institutions in the country that did not offer sub-prime mortgages. They are now taking a hit because the loans that they did make are not being repaid since so many of their customers like small businesses have failed and too many workers are unemployed and are unable to repay loans.
So what's the solution? The immediate shot in the arm may be like castor oil but could be the best tonic. Infusing the public with a dose of cash could have the best overall benefit to the country. If one took a look at the $850,000,000,000 being dumped into a failed financial system and instead had distributed those funds to each household in the country that money would have been put to work immediately. Loans would be paid, expenditures made for autos, refrigerators and houses and investment- Values would increase. The American consumer puts over 60 percent of the US GDP on the ledger. The consumer is our leadership out of the mess the fat cats created.
This alternative makes a lot more sense than giving corporate welfare payments to those that just abuse the American public some more. Call it whatever you want- It's still corporate welfare.
Thursday, December 11, 2008
Thursday, October 16, 2008
Got To Have Confidence!
Confidence?
It's just past the Ides of October and some would refer to the economic climate as a bit of uneasiness. You need to have confidence someone said. Everyone is waiting for the move up. But wait a minute! If EVERYONE is waiting for the move then who will do the buying? Even precious metals aren't attracting attention- Why? Because no one knows where those prices are going either, and you can't pay the bills with bullion especially if the price has hit the skids due to lower inflation.
Fixed income is in a funk and money market rates are heading lower as well. The fed is thinking about lowering rates even more but the moneylenders in the temple are afraid to let the money out no matter what the rates! Paulson says we can't make them loan money out. The rest of the world will be reluctant to buy greenbacks if they will be devalued due to lowering interest rates.
The Germans are reluctant to participate in the financial banking bailout debacle as it will cost them since they have had the foresight to control the economics better than anywhere except China. The Chinese aren't worried about a little slowdown as they know full well that at the end of the day they will be in the catbird seat. Since the Chinese have been paying exorbitant rates for all commodities like oil, iron ore, tin, copper, aluminum and coal the dramatic drop in commodities is great news to our Eastern brethren. Also since the Chinese hold almost all of the US Treasury debt a tightening up of the US$ means that their holdings of US bonds are worth a lot more. To bad we can't find a way to put the blame them for something!
The leveraging out of US dollars was not in the best interest of a lot of folks, except of course the really FAT CATS at Countrywide, Washington Mutual, Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch, AIG, and whoever else has their hand out at our expense. The caving in of home values across the country and endless foreclosures have made the vast majority of those that received sub-prime mortgages the real unfortunates.
Buffett warned years ago about this developing charade as did Bill Gross of Pimco. Kevin Phillips virtually predicted the debacle in his two great books AMERICAN THEOCRACY and BAD MONEY. Too bad we didn't listen to them when we had the chance. I wonder who's going to pay the tax bill for all of the federal largess? I mean, $700 billion is a lot of money to some people.
It's just past the Ides of October and some would refer to the economic climate as a bit of uneasiness. You need to have confidence someone said. Everyone is waiting for the move up. But wait a minute! If EVERYONE is waiting for the move then who will do the buying? Even precious metals aren't attracting attention- Why? Because no one knows where those prices are going either, and you can't pay the bills with bullion especially if the price has hit the skids due to lower inflation.
Fixed income is in a funk and money market rates are heading lower as well. The fed is thinking about lowering rates even more but the moneylenders in the temple are afraid to let the money out no matter what the rates! Paulson says we can't make them loan money out. The rest of the world will be reluctant to buy greenbacks if they will be devalued due to lowering interest rates.
The Germans are reluctant to participate in the financial banking bailout debacle as it will cost them since they have had the foresight to control the economics better than anywhere except China. The Chinese aren't worried about a little slowdown as they know full well that at the end of the day they will be in the catbird seat. Since the Chinese have been paying exorbitant rates for all commodities like oil, iron ore, tin, copper, aluminum and coal the dramatic drop in commodities is great news to our Eastern brethren. Also since the Chinese hold almost all of the US Treasury debt a tightening up of the US$ means that their holdings of US bonds are worth a lot more. To bad we can't find a way to put the blame them for something!
The leveraging out of US dollars was not in the best interest of a lot of folks, except of course the really FAT CATS at Countrywide, Washington Mutual, Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch, AIG, and whoever else has their hand out at our expense. The caving in of home values across the country and endless foreclosures have made the vast majority of those that received sub-prime mortgages the real unfortunates.
Buffett warned years ago about this developing charade as did Bill Gross of Pimco. Kevin Phillips virtually predicted the debacle in his two great books AMERICAN THEOCRACY and BAD MONEY. Too bad we didn't listen to them when we had the chance. I wonder who's going to pay the tax bill for all of the federal largess? I mean, $700 billion is a lot of money to some people.
Tuesday, September 23, 2008
Hey, Mom and Dad- About my allowance
Hi, Folks- Just a note to let you know that I probably won't make it home for the school break. Actually I had hoped to come home in style! I took the money you sent me for the Fall semester's tuition and figured that I could leverage up a bit- Learned that from some financial stocks that I've been following. This leverage stuff is cool!
I got a hot tip to buy some real estate down by the river. The guy that sold it to me said never mind the fact that a lot of it is under water, the financing can't be beat! Boy what a deal- Only 2 percent down and 30 years to pay at only 4% interest. I was able to buy a hundred acres with the tuition money you sent me as a down payment. The bank where I got the loan thought it was a real opportunity. They had a big sign on the door offering the same terms to most anybody that needs a loan. I'm not sure what the property's worth right now since I don't see any similar properties that are currently available. I guess they're all bought up!
I figured that I could go to the bank where I got the loan and see if they knew what the property was worth but the loan officer couldn't talk to me right then and there as he was going to Washington to see some guy named Paulson about an advance on his allowance and give the government the note on my property to secure it.
This appears to be a new type of government sponsored giveaway program since I'd be surprised if banks really got allowances. You never know though. The only thing that I see is that you have to have lent money out with little or no hope of getting it back. Seems like some taxpayers or somebody with money to burn has given this guy Paulson a truckload of money to give away- What a great country! Do we know any taxpayers?
We learned about some guy named Ponzi in Economics 101 last semester that sounds a lot like what this Paulson guy and the banks are doing. The bank guy said it was using "leverage more aggressively," a more efficient use of capital.
Do you think that the president is aware of what these guys are doing?
Anyway since I spent the tuition money plus my allowance buying that property I could use a little advance myself since I've got a payment due on my real estate loan- Things got a little tight and I missed the last one. What do you say? If a bank can get some cash from the government with no obligation I'll bet you could spot me a few bucks. And you know of course that it's only a loan and that I'll pay you back some day. If things are tight maybe you could visit this Paulson guy and get some of that free money!
Lots of love, Your kid
I got a hot tip to buy some real estate down by the river. The guy that sold it to me said never mind the fact that a lot of it is under water, the financing can't be beat! Boy what a deal- Only 2 percent down and 30 years to pay at only 4% interest. I was able to buy a hundred acres with the tuition money you sent me as a down payment. The bank where I got the loan thought it was a real opportunity. They had a big sign on the door offering the same terms to most anybody that needs a loan. I'm not sure what the property's worth right now since I don't see any similar properties that are currently available. I guess they're all bought up!
I figured that I could go to the bank where I got the loan and see if they knew what the property was worth but the loan officer couldn't talk to me right then and there as he was going to Washington to see some guy named Paulson about an advance on his allowance and give the government the note on my property to secure it.
This appears to be a new type of government sponsored giveaway program since I'd be surprised if banks really got allowances. You never know though. The only thing that I see is that you have to have lent money out with little or no hope of getting it back. Seems like some taxpayers or somebody with money to burn has given this guy Paulson a truckload of money to give away- What a great country! Do we know any taxpayers?
We learned about some guy named Ponzi in Economics 101 last semester that sounds a lot like what this Paulson guy and the banks are doing. The bank guy said it was using "leverage more aggressively," a more efficient use of capital.
Do you think that the president is aware of what these guys are doing?
Anyway since I spent the tuition money plus my allowance buying that property I could use a little advance myself since I've got a payment due on my real estate loan- Things got a little tight and I missed the last one. What do you say? If a bank can get some cash from the government with no obligation I'll bet you could spot me a few bucks. And you know of course that it's only a loan and that I'll pay you back some day. If things are tight maybe you could visit this Paulson guy and get some of that free money!
Lots of love, Your kid
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It is also true that just giving the clueless Detroit boys more money wouldn't solve much except to delay the inevitable.
What we need is a demand from Congress and Obama that a VIABLE business plan be developed just as if they were a new business venture looking for capital. The American people have lost faith in the car makers because they build in obsolescence and quality is second to gimmickry and cost increasing extras. Where is the 1966 Ford pickup that I bought new for $2100 that I sold for $300 when it had 265,000 miles on it? Would anyone in their right mind routinely expect any US made vehicle to last over 150,000 miles? And why not? Where is the basic transportation that we need.
Car makers take note. Trim the bloated overpaid manager overhead, negotiate with the unions to give the workers respect and a say in outcomes the same way they do in Asia and Europe and stop whining about how the unions are driving you out of business. The standards of living in many countries are passing us by so we can't say our workers are treated too well as compared to foreign countries' workers.
Make a car that has minimal defects and ones the public has confidence in. Build them to last more than 150,000 miles and stand behind it when there is trouble. Get rid of dealers that fake repairs and bill you the manufacturer for work not done, or try to push extra cost items onto the cost of the vehicles.
Spend the money on innovation to improve quality and dump gimmicks. Partner with developers of alternative energy, including natural gas powered vehicles that are so prevalent in the OIL PRODUCING countries that are mandated so they can save their oil to sell to us. Engineer a way to bring fuel cells into vehicles instead of building cars that increase our dependency on foreign oil.
In other words, bring the USA some true leadership.